BitcoinBTC -1.2% and ethereum have swung wildly this week as traders try to get ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.
The bitcoin price last week topped $30,000 per bitcoin, its highest since June last year, but has crashed back despite analysts calling the start of a new “crypto cycle” and ethereum’s founder issuing a bullish price prediction.
Now, an under-the-radar but historically accurate bitcoin price indicator has flipped positive as ethereum institutional activity suddenly explodes.
“Reserve risk just crossed 0 again. This bitcoin indicator signals huge potential,” bitcoin and crypto analyst Ali Martinez posted to Twitter alongside a chart of Glassnode data showing the bitcoin price crossing the level for the first time since late 2021.
“When the bitcoin reserve risk moves above 0, it signals parabolic price moves,” Martinez said, pointing to historical data when in 2012, 2013, 2015, 2019, and 2020, it resulted in gains of 2,830%, 566%, 6,400%, 99%, and 487%, respectively.
However, the bitcoin price action so far this week has sapped the confidence of traders.
“The market is struggling to find a reason to buy and support the price as profit-taking selling pressure and long liquidation have pushed down the price this week, while the U.S. stock market loses its direction,” Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Bitbank, said in an emailed note.
“Unfortunately, despite the decline, bulls do not seem to have given up just yet as bitcoin futures market’s funding rate still reads positive, which could limit the upper potential for bitcoin and worsen its short term drawdown.”
The bitcoin price has bounced back this year following a brutal crypto winter that saw the bitcoin … [+]
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Meanwhile, ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade earlier this month, the final part of its transition to a fully-fledged proof-of-stake network, has increased expectations the network could see a surge of new investor interest.
“As expected, Shanghai was followed by massive ethereum withdrawals,” K33 head of research Bendik Schei wrote in a report this week that described ethereum institutional activity as “exploding,” and added: “The market overestimated the Shanghai selling pressure, leading ethereum to outshine bitcoin on the backdrop of burgeoning institutional activity.”